On ESPN2 at 7 ET and streamed on ESPN3 is a big betting contest between Navy and South Florida. Offshore sportsbooks have the point spread posted as South Florida -6.5 and 65. The lines opened at -7 and 66. Sharp betting percentages tell us Navy is expected to cover by 74 percent of those who anteed up in Las Vegas or online. The exact same percentage expect an over.
Professional gambling experts break down the match-up using key numbers devoted to by Vegas whales. In comparing yards per rush on offense, the better digits go to South Florida, perhaps a shock to some, by .7. Accordingly, as passing yards per attempt on the offensive side of the ball, the plus side is for Navy by a stunning 3.3. According to yards per point, the most efficient offense of the combatants is USF, but by a slim .1.
Defensively the stingier team centered on yards per rush calculations is Navy by .7. The more outstanding defense based on the proviso of yards per pass is the Bulls by a significant 1.7. The yards per point statistic used by the best pro gamblers says the better defense is Navy, but by a narrow .2.
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Yards per point is determined by dividing total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.
Spread betting trends (all records are ATS): Navy 13-3 after scoring 40 points or more last game, but 2-7 in Friday contests. USF is 12-5 overall and 1-5 versus an opponent with a winning road record. Totals angles: South Florida under 11-2 after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game, but over 6-0 to teams with a winning record.