One of the stronger betting opportunities for investors is a contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers. The betting line has the point spread posted as Green Bay -6 with a total of 48.5 to 49. The contest opened at -6.5 and 48. Par for the course, 72 percent of bets are on the home favorite, with 70 percent on the over.
OffshoreInsiders.com takes a look at the match-up using key numbers employed by Vegas insiders. In comparing yards per rush on offense, the healthier records go to the Packers by .4. Insofar as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the advantage is for the Chiefs by .8. According to yards per point, the not wasteful offense is Green Bay by .8.
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Defensively the more miserly team based on yards per rush is Kansas City by a significant 1.6. The more exceptional defense based on the stipulation of passing yards per completion is KC by 1.0. The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the better defense is the Packers by 4.6. Turnover rate favors Green Bay by four.
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Yards per point is determined by dividing total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.
Spread trends (all records against the spread): KC 4-1 on MNF, 6-2 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Green Bay is 39-17 on grass, 34-16 at home. However they are 1-4 on MNF. The underdog has covered four straight in the series.
Over/under angles: KC has gone under five straight after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and under 19-7 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Green Bay over 9-3 off spread win, over 7-3 home.