It is a big night in NFL and college football. The Indianapolis Colts are at the Houston Texans and Washington vs. USC clash in college football. But that is not the only game on the college gridiron.
Expert sports picks against the spread previews SMU vs. Houston on ESPN2. Real-time odds point spread on this game from Vegas sportsbooks has Houston -26 with a total of 72. The game opened at -22 and 72. The Cougars are supported by 55 percent of bettors, which is actually low for a big chalk. Also 66 percent are wagering on the over.
Of the two teams, the top offense based on rushing yards per attempt is Houston by 1.8. Insofar as passing yards per reception (different than passing yards per attempt), Vegas experts edge belongs to SMU by .5. Yards per point judges the better team on offense as the Cougars by .5.
Billy Walter’s picks this week should be Joe Duffy’s Picks. Folks I have a database that goes back to 1989. I have a system that applies Thursday night in the NFL that has never, ever lost as far as our database goes back. Oh the average margin of cover (notice I did not say margin of victory, but how much it covers by) is double-digits over more than a quarter of a century at OffshoreInsiders.com
Defense who is better at stopping the run? Founded on yards per pass attempt it is Houston by 4.2. Based upon yards per reception, defensively better at stopping the passing game manifests to be the Cougars by 3.9. Last and most definitely not least is yards per point gauging the superior defensive team as Houston forcing 3.7 more. Turnover statistical supremacy is Houston by four.
Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.
Spread trends (all records against the spread): SMU is 4-1 on Thursday, 3-8 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Houston is 11-0 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 22-7 off win, 21-7 off spread win, 3-7 home. Houston 5-1 in the series.
Over/under angles: SMU over 6-0 road, over 16-5 off loss, under 17-8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston over 4-1.