This week’s football schedule kicks off with Tuesday night action between Northern Illinois and Toledo. The game kicks off on ESPN2 at 8 ET. The offshore and Vegas point spread is Toledo (-7.5) and 60.5. The game opened at -8 and 60. Despite the public affection for big favorites, only 54 percent are taking Toledo with a substantial 75 percent on the over. Also preview Baylor vs. Kansas State.
Defensively the more stingy team based on yards per rush is Northern Illinois by a razor thin .1. The superior defense in terms of passing yards per completion is Toledo by .6. The yards per point statistic used by betting advice says the better-quality defense is Toledo by a whopping 7.4. The turnover department upper hand belongs to Toledo by one.
In comparing yards per rush on offense, the better numbers belong to Toledo by .5 yards per rushing attempt. As far as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the upper hand is for the home squad as well by 1.2. According to yards per point, the more efficient offense is NIU getting .5. less.
Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Who to bet on is only one answer and that is Joe Duffy’s Picks. Another bookend leads us to another winning week in the NFL. The Colts make us 23-10 with all football picks.
Get a college football Wise Guy total from the Grandmaster on Toledo and Northern Illinois. We also have NBA and NHL majors making it three winning picks in three sports. It is never a good idea to assume you know what metrics apply (hint?). Get the picks now
Yards per point is determined by dividing total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.
Spread trends (all records against the spread): Northern Illinois is 22-10 after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game but 1-5 all Tuesday contests. Toledo has covered nine straight (excluding two pushes) and are 9-1 off win, 1-9 off bye. Toledo is 11-5 in the series and the underdog 9-4.
Over/under angles: Northern Illinois under 7-1 road, over 7-3 overall. Toledo under 7-0 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, under 12-4 to teams with a winning record, under 12-5 after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.